Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-30 32.741910 35.336191 38.151102 41.452889 45.246571 49.502290 54.685335
2025-04-06 28.601645 32.016111 35.957387 40.914212 47.088450 54.679653 64.980139
2025-04-13 25.684202 29.381297 33.811985 39.635722 47.289344 57.325290 72.097047
2025-04-20 24.586772 28.694003 33.792036 40.784617 50.482001 64.087965 86.020282
2025-04-27 23.645659 28.055020 33.691218 41.710968 53.379655 70.819895 101.598179
2025-05-04 22.726946 27.334671 33.370574 42.232917 55.685447 76.996433 118.096828
2025-05-11 21.656900 26.317421 32.537853 41.897274 56.593980 81.027706 131.976673
2025-05-18 20.649618 25.307672 31.622362 41.322054 57.005421 84.225949 145.303254
2025-05-25 19.689648 24.299644 30.629811 40.522477 56.920859 86.473040 157.394616
2025-06-01 18.838302 23.392314 29.717207 39.756051 56.779238 88.556690 170.014503
2025-06-08 17.983436 22.436412 28.675518 38.698466 56.002434 89.234739 179.278690
2025-06-15 17.788348 22.398597 28.970493 39.784839 59.147009 98.605392 219.527257
2025-06-22 17.209490 21.803652 28.429071 39.511722 59.863812 103.153293 249.146110
2025-06-29 16.614002 21.159919 27.781192 39.015084 60.109843 106.748106 279.240403
2025-07-06 15.899757 20.311574 26.774551 37.830910 58.867157 106.472586 293.163546
2025-07-13 15.763327 20.304743 27.063580 38.895136 62.259948 118.855822 386.130145
2025-07-20 15.586053 20.225787 27.230052 39.752173 65.359342 131.669008 517.604809
2025-07-27 15.339432 20.029159 27.194020 40.234661 67.723891 143.352172 691.791865
2025-08-03 14.948368 19.595685 26.750375 39.924427 68.255815 149.488452 849.002827
2025-08-10 14.537615 19.116915 26.209982 39.392472 68.205435 153.707008 1018.040592
2025-08-17 14.110128 18.598244 25.581930 38.652441 67.575762 155.729587 1179.064288
2025-08-24 13.710916 18.111381 24.987880 37.942440 66.945021 157.636875 1376.490879
2025-08-31 13.280776 17.564457 24.274384 36.961654 65.552930 156.278534 1491.558373